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Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Why do you need science?

An interesting morning's mail. Two articles released overnight deal with forensic video analysis. Two different angles on the subject.

First off, there's the "advertorial" for the LEVA / IAI certification programs in the Police Chief Magazine.

The pitch for certification was complicated by this image:


The caption for the image further complicated the message for me: "Proper training is required to accurately recover or enhance low-resolution video and images, as well as other visual complexities."

Whilst the statement is true, do you really believe that the improvements to the image happened from the left to the right? Perhaps, for editorial purposes, the image was degraded, from the original (R) to the result (L). If I'm wrong about this, I'd love to see the case notes and the specifics as to the original file. Can you imagine such a result coming from the average CCTV file? Hardly.

Next in the bin was an opinion piece in the Washington Post's Radley Balko - "Journalists need to stop enabling junk forensics." It's seemingly the rebuttal to the LEVA / IAI piece.

Balko picks up where the ProPublica series left off - an examination of the discipline in general, and Dr. Vorder Brugge of the FBI in particular. It's an opinion piece, and it's rather pointed in it's opinion of the state of the discipline. Balko, like ProPublica, has been on this for a while now (here's another Balko piece on the state of forensic science in the US).

I don't disagree with any of the referenced authors here. Not one bit. Jan and Kim are correct in that the Trier of Fact needs competent analysts working cases. Balko is correct in that the US still rather sucks at science. That we suck as science was the main reason the Obama administration created the OSAC and the reason Texas created it's licensing scheme for analysts.

Where I think I disagree with Jan and Kim is essentially a legacy of the Daubert decision. Daubert seemingly outsourced the qualification process to third parties. It gave rise to the certification mills and to industry training programs. Training to competency means different things to different organizations. For example, I've been trained to competency on the use of Amped's FIVE and Authenticate. But, none of that training included the underlying science behind how the tool is used in case work. For that, I had to go elsewhere. But, Amped Software, Inc, certified me as a user and a trainer of the tools. That (certification) was just a step in the journey to competency, not the destination.

Balko, like ProPublica, notes the problems with pattern evidence exams. Their points are valid. But, it doesn't mean that image comparison can't be accomplished. It does mean that image comparisons should be founded in science. One of those sciences is certainly image science (knowing the constituent parts of the image / video and how the evidence item was created, transmitted, stored, retrieved, etc. But another one of the sciences necessary is statistics (and experimental design).

As I noted in my letter to the editor of the Journal of Forensic Identification, experimental design and statistics form a vital part of any analysis. For pattern matching, the evidence item may match the CCTV footage. But, would a representative sample of similar items (shirts, jeans, etc) also match? Can you calculate probabilities if you're unaware of the denominator in the function (what's the population of items)? Did you calculate the sample size properly for the given test? Do you have access to a sample set? If not, did you note these limitations in your report? Did these limitations inform your conclusions?

Both LEVA and the IAI have a requirement for their certified analysts to seek and complete additional training / education towards eventual recertification. This is a good thing. But, as many of us know, there are only so many training opportunities. At some point, you kind of run out of classes to take is a common refrain. Whilst this may be true for "training" (tool / discipline specific), this is so not true for education. There are a ton of classes out there to inform one's work. The problem there becomes price / availability. This price / availability problem was the primary driver behind my taking my Statistics class out of the college context and putting it on-line as micro learning. My other classes from my "curriculum in a box" concept will roll out later this year and into the next year.

So to the point of the morning's articles - yes, you do need a trained / educated analyst. Yes, that analyst needs to engage in a scientific experiment - governed both by image science as well as experimental science. Forensic science can be science, if it's conducted scientifically. Otherwise, it becomes a rhetorical exercise utilizing demonstratives to support it's unreproducible claims.

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